Multi‐scenario simulation of land use change based on MCR‐SD‐FLUS model: A case study of Nanchang, China. Issue 7 (7th September 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gu, Moli; Ye, Changsheng; Hu, Mengshan; Lyu, Xue; Li, Xin; Hu, Haiping; Huang, Xiaolan
• Is Part Of: Transactions in GIS. Volume 26:Issue 7(2022)
• Page Start: 2932
• Page End: 2953
• Publication Date: 2022-09-07
• Subjects: Geographic information systems -- Periodicals; 910.285
• DOI: 10.1111/tgis.12986
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1361-1682

Abstract

Abstract: Modeling land use/cover change (LUCC) is a helpful approach to simulate land use changes, analyze land use driving mechanisms, and support territorial spatial planning. However, there is no single model that comprehensively represents spatiotemporal changes, impact mechanisms, and ecological conservation of land use. This article focuses on Nanchang City and how the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, the system dynamics (SD) model, and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model can be combined and applied to simulate the trends of land utilization change in different future scenarios. This allows us to explore the environmental protection policies and constraints, as well as to assess the socioeconomic regulation mechanisms and dynamic spatial patterns of land use. The results proved that the integrated model is competent in monitoring and projecting the dynamics of LUCC. The areas suitable for ecological protection are mainly located in the southeast, northeast and Meiling Scenic Area of Nanchang. By 2030, the scale of cultivated land will decrease, while the scale of forestland, grassland, water area, and total construction land will increase. Spatially, some cultivated land will be occupied due to the expansion of urban land, while the rural settlement land will be converted into other construction land. The interconversion of ecological lands also encroaches on part of the cultivated land. This scenario simulation based on the coupled MCR‐SD‐FLUS model provides decision‐making options for land resource planning and ecological environment assessment not only in the study region but also in other similar cities.