A spatially explicit N-mixture model for the estimation of disease prevalence. (February 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Brintz, Ben J; Madsen, Lisa; Fuentes, Claudio
• Is Part Of: Statistical modelling. Volume 23:Number 1(2023)
• Page Start: 31
• Page End: 52
• Publication Date: 2023-02
• Subjects: Case counts -- Chlamydia -- normal approximation -- Oregon -- parametric bootstrap; Linear models (Statistics) -- Periodicals; Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Modèles linéaires (Statistique) -- Périodiques; Modèles mathématiques -- Périodiques; Modèle statistique; Modèle linéaire; Modélisation statistique; Périodique électronique (Descripteur de forme); Ressource Internet (Descripteur de forme); 519.5011
• DOI: 10.1177/1471082X211020872
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1471-082X

Abstract

This article develops an approximate N-mixture model for infectious disease counts that accounts for under-reporting as well as spatial dependence induced by person-to-person spread of disease. We employ the model to estimate actual case counts in Oregon of chlamydia, an easily-treated but usually asymptomatic sexually transmitted disease. We describe a combined parametric bootstrap to account for uncertainty in parameter estimates as well as sampling variability in actual case counts. A simulation study illustrates that our method performs well in many scenarios when the model is correctly specified, and also gives reasonable results when the model is misspecified, and no spatial dependence exists.