The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics—how and why?. Issue 7 (27th July 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Van Damme, Wim; Dahake, Ritwik; Delamou, Alexandre; Ingelbeen, Brecht; Wouters, Edwin; Vanham, Guido; van de Pas, Remco; Dossou, Jean-Paul; Ir, Por; Abimbola, Seye; Van der Borght, Stefaan; Narayanan, Devadasan; Bloom, Gerald; Van Engelgem, Ian; Ag Ahmed, Mohamed Ali; Kiendrébéogo, Joël Arthur; Verdonck, Kristien; De Brouwere, Vincent; Bello, Kéfilath; Kloos, Helmut; Aaby, Peter; Kalk, Andreas; Al-Awlaqi, Sameh; Prashanth, NS; Muyembe-Tamfum, Jean-Jacques; Mbala, Placide; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Assefa, Yibeltal
• Is Part Of: BMJ global health. Volume 5:Issue 7(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-07-27
• Subjects: public health; World health -- Periodicals; 362.105
• DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003098
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2059-7908

Abstract

Abstract : It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability—by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.