Introducing site selection flexibility to technical and economic onshore wind potential assessments: New method with application to Indonesia. (January 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Langer, Jannis; Zaaijer, Michiel; Quist, Jaco; Blok, Kornelis
• Is Part Of: Renewable energy. Volume 202(2023)
• Page Start: 320
• Page End: 335
• Publication Date: 2023-01
• Subjects: Onshore wind potential -- Indonesia -- Flexible site selection criteria -- Land use -- Bias correction -- Levelized cost of electricity; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Power resources -- Periodicals; Énergies renouvelables -- Périodiques; Ressources énergétiques -- Périodiques; 333.794
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.11.084
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0960-1481

Abstract

Abstract: Onshore wind potentials are commonly mapped with site selection criteria that either fully include or exclude land for wind farms. However, current research rarely addresses the variability of these criteria, possibly resulting in overly conservative or optimistic potentials. This paper proposes a method to account for the variability of site selection criteria in resource assessments. We distinguish between static and flexible, non-binary criteria and assess onshore wind's technical and economic potential with bias-corrected ERA5 data, 28 turbine power curves, and a turbine-specific cost model. For Indonesia, we show that our flexible mapping approach improves the transparency of resource potential assessments and could contribute to more informed and useful recommendations. These recommendations could address the (1) calibration of site exclusion thresholds, (2) dilemmas of preferring one land type over others, (3) location-specific challenges of wind farm deployment, and (4) more direct support schemes for affected stakeholders and wind farm operators.. We report a technical potential of 207–1, 994 TWh/year in Indonesia, which could cover more than 50% of 2030 electricity demand on all islands. LCOEs range between 5.8 and 24.5 US¢(2021)/kWh with an economic potential of 16 TWh/year, which improves to 31–212 TWh/year with a carbon tax of 100 US$(2021)/tCO2 e. Highlights: New method to account for variability of onshore wind site selection criteria. We differ between static and flexible site selection criteria for resource mapping. Their use may change onshore wind potentials by several orders of magnitude. Flexible site selection enables more transparent and informed recommendations.