Demand for grid-supplied electricity in the presence of distributed solar energy resources: Evidence from New York City. (February 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Forbes, Kevin F.
• Is Part Of: Utilities policy. Volume 80(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-02
• Subjects: Solar energy forecasting -- Load energy forecasting -- Duck curve -- Electricity markets -- Distributed energy resources -- Behind-the-meter solar generation; Q42 -- Q47; Public utilities -- United States -- Periodicals; Public utilities -- Government policy -- United States -- Periodicals; 363.6
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2022.101447
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0957-1787

Abstract

Abstract: The increasing utilization of distributed energy resources such as behind-the-meter solar has given rise to a grid-supplied load profile conditional on solar conditions that are difficult to forecast using conventional methods. As a result, the accuracy of the load forecasts is reduced, representing a possible operational challenge to system operators. This paper presents a method to resolve this challenge using New York City electricity zone data. The analysis presented in this paper demonstrates that the load forecasting challenges associated with behind-the-meter solar can be successfully addressed using econometric time-series methods and better forecast information. Highlights: Distributed energy resources have the potential to reduce the accuracy of the system operator's load forecasts. Inaccurate load forecasts may adversely affect the power grid's resiliency. A method is presented to predict near-real-time grid-supplied load accurately.