Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand. (19th June 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gouel, Christophe; Guimbard, Houssein
• Is Part Of: American journal of agricultural economics. Volume 101:Number 2(2019)
• Page Start: 383
• Page End: 403
• Publication Date: 2018-06-19
• Subjects: Bennett's law -- food demand -- food security -- nutrition transition; Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals; Agriculture -- Periodicals; 338.105
• DOI: 10.1093/ajae/aay030
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0002-9092

Abstract

Abstract: Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income demand system. The resulting model is estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT. The model captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are: ( a ) global food demand will increase by 47%, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; ( b ) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; ( c ) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a doubling of demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 19% increase in demand for starchy staples; and ( d ) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties—depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 74% to 114%, and from 20% to 42%, respectively.