Dragon-king extreme events as precursors for catastrophic transition. (15th July 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Premraj, D.; Suresh, Kumarasamy; Pawar, Samadhan A.; Kabiraj, Lipika; Prasad, Awadhesh; Sujith, R. I.
• Is Part Of: Europhysics letters. Volume 134:Number 3(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-07-15
• Subjects: Physics -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; 530.05
• DOI: 10.1209/0295-5075/134/34006
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0295-5075

Abstract

Abstract: Unexpected catastrophic transitions are often observed in complex systems. However, the prediction of such transitions is difficult in practice. Here, we find a special kind of extreme events with a dragon-king probability distribution that occur just prior to a catastrophic transition and, hence, can serve as its precursor. To illustrate the application of dragon kings as a precursor, we consider a practical experimental thermo-fluid system and a theoretical model of coupled logistic maps with quasi-periodic forcing, both systems displaying a catastrophic transition.