Delay in budget allocation for vaccination and awareness induces chaos in an infectious disease model. (1st January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Misra, Arvind Kumar; Rai, Rajanish Kumar; Tiwari, Pankaj Kumar; Martcheva, Maia
• Is Part Of: Journal of biological dynamics. Volume 15(2021)Supplement 1
• Page Start: 395
• Page End: 429
• Publication Date: 2021-01-01
• Subjects: Budget allocation -- vaccination -- awareness -- sensitivity -- time delay -- chaos; Biology -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 570.15118
• DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1952322
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1751-3758

Abstract

Abstract : In this paper, we propose a model to assess the impacts of budget allocation for vaccination and awareness programs on the dynamics of infectious diseases. The budget allocation is assumed to follow logistic growth, and its per capita growth rate increases proportional to disease prevalence. An increment in per-capita growth rate of budget allocation due to increase in infected individuals after a threshold value leads to onset of limit cycle oscillations. Our results reveal that the epidemic potential can be reduced or even disease can be eradicated through vaccination of high quality and/or continuous propagation of awareness among the people in endemic zones. We extend the proposed model by incorporating a discrete time delay in the increment of budget allocation due to infected population in the region. We observe that multiple stability switches occur and the system becomes chaotic on gradual increase in the value of time delay.