Consistency of Seasonal Mean and Extreme Precipitation Projections Over Europe Across a Range of Climate Model Ensembles. Issue 1 (4th January 2023) - Ritzhaupt, N.
Abstract: Uncertainties of regional precipitation projections are substantial, and users of such projections face the so‐called practitioners dilemma: a plethora of projections with different models from different ensembles of different types and generations are available. But the consistency of these projections has not been systematically assessed, such that no clear guidance about the use of these ensembles exists. Therefore, we systematically compare, separately for each season, projections of mean precipitation and extremes of daily precipitation over Europe across a wide range of climate model ensembles. We specifically consider the global climate model ensembles CMIP3, CMIP5, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and HighresMIP as well as the regional climate model ensembles ENSEMBLES and EURO‐CORDEX. All considered ensembles agree in their large‐scale patterns of changes for both mean and extreme daily precipitation, but at the regional scale, substantial discrepancies and inconsistencies are evident. Within and across ensemble spread is strongest in summer, in particular for the drying trend over the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. CMIP5 and CMIP6 are broadly consistent. The regional climate model (RCM) ensembles modify the signals of the driving global climate models indicating potential added value. The high resolution of the RCM and HighresMIP ensembles seems to be key over the Alps for summer precipitation. Our study provides important information for users of climate projections as it helps to establish continuity across generations and types of climate models, and aids the design of new climate impact studies. Plain Language Summary: Simulations of regional future precipitation are based on different models, model generations and model types, but differences between these simulations have not been systematically assessed. Users of such simulations are therefore left alone with the choice of model type, model generation and model. Therefore, we systematically compare, separately for each season, climate change simulations of mean precipitation and extremes of daily precipitation over Europe across a wide range of climate model ensembles, sets of different models from the same type and generation. Differences within and across ensembles is strongest in summer, in particular for the drying trend over the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. There is evidence that regional climate models may improve the climate change simulations compared to global climate models. A fine climate model resolution as in regional climate models or some global climate models seem to be required to represent summer precipitation changes over the Alps. Our study provides important information for users of climate change simulations as it helps to establish continuity across generations and types of climate models, and aids the design of new climate impact studies. Key Points: Identification of robust and conflicting projections of mean and extreme precipitation across Europe in six climate model ensembles For mean precipitation changes, ensembles differ in the strength of Mediterranean and south‐eastern European summer drying For extreme precipitation changes, regional climate models often alter the changes projected by their driving global models