Analysis of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) Lévy jump model with protective measures. Issue 1 (2nd January 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Caraballo, Tomás; El Fatini, Mohamed; El Khalifi, Mohamed; Rathinasamy, Anandaraman
• Is Part Of: Stochastic analysis and applications. Volume 41:Issue 1(2023)
• Page Start: 45
• Page End: 59
• Publication Date: 2023-01-02
• Subjects: Stochastic differential equation -- Lévy noise -- COVID-19 -- extinction -- persistence in mean -- Kunita's inequality; Stochastic analysis -- Periodicals; 519.2205
• DOI: 10.1080/07362994.2021.1989312
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0736-2994

Abstract

Abstract: This paper studied a stochastic epidemic model of the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Severe factors impacting the disease transmission are presented by white noise and compensated Poisson noise with possibly infinite characteristic measure. Large time estimates are established based on Kunita's inequality rather than Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for continuous diffusions. The effect of stochasticity is taken into account in the formulation of sufficient conditions for the extinction of COVID-19 and its persistence. Our results prove that environmental fluctuations can be privileged in controlling the pandemic behavior. Based on real parameter values, numerical results are presented to illustrate obtained results concerning the extinction and the persistence in mean of the disease.