Enemy at the Gates: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation of Russia's Baltic Policy. Issue 1 (7th November 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Götz, Elias
• Is Part Of: Foreign policy analysis. Volume 15:Issue 1(2019)
• Page Start: 99
• Page End: 117
• Publication Date: 2017-11-07
• Subjects: International relations -- Periodicals; World politics -- Periodicals; 327.05
• DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orx011
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1743-8586

Abstract

Abstract: What drives Russia's Baltic policy? To answer this question, I develop a neoclassical realist framework that explains how local great powers act toward neighboring small states. In brief, the framework argues that local great powers face strong systemic incentives to establish a sphere of influence around their borders. Toward that end, they can employ positive and negative incentives. The general rule is that the higher the level of external pressure, the more assertive the policies pursued by the local great power. However, this simple relationship between external pressure and regional assertiveness is moderated by two variables: (1) the ability of small states to obtain security guarantees from extra regional powers; and (2) the level of state capacity of the local great power. The article develops this theoretical argument and shows that it goes a long way to explain the overall pattern and evolution of Russia's Baltic policy over the last two decades.