Future evolution of global land surface air temperature trend based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. (27th April 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wu, Wen; Ji, Fei; Hu, Shujuan; He, Yongli; Wei, Yun; Xu, Zhenhao; Yu, Haipeng
• Is Part Of: International journal of climatology. Volume 42:Number 15(2022)
• Page Start: 7611
• Page End: 7627
• Publication Date: 2022-04-27
• Subjects: CMIP6 -- EEMD -- future evolution -- surface air temperature; Climatology -- Periodicals; Climat -- Périodiques; Climatologie -- Périodiques; 551.605
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.7668
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0899-8418

Abstract

Abstract: In recent decades, global warming has been an indisputable fact. The increase in extreme events accompanied by the rise in temperature has huge influences on many aspects of the society and economy globally. As a result, forecasting how global temperatures will change and evolve in the future is crucial, but it is restricted by the accuracy and uncertainty of model simulations. Based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, this study first evaluates the performance of the CMIP6 models in simulating different timescale components including high‐frequency components (HFC), low‐frequency components (LFC), and secular trend (ST) of surface air temperature (SAT). The results show that the performance of the CMIP6 models in simulating the ST is better. Following the observation constraint method's correction of CMIP6 model simulations, we investigate the evolution characteristics of future temperature secular trends under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results show that under SSP245 scenario, the rise of SAT first appeared in northwest and east North America and eastern Europe. The spatial distribution of evolution characteristic under the SSP585 scenario is similar to that of the SSP245 scenario but with a larger magnitude. However, more pronounced differences appear in warming rate, which shows a downward trend over time under the SSP245 scenario and an upward trend with time under the SSP585 scenario. Abstract : Forecasting how global temperatures will change and evolve in the future is critical. This study investigated the evolution characteristics of future temperature secular trends (extracted by EEMD method) under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results show that under SSP245 scenario, the rise of SAT first appeared in northwestern and eastern North America and eastern Europe, and the heating rate showed a downward trend over time. In the figure, the spatial mode of heating under the SSP585 scenario was similar to that of the SSP245 scenario but larger. The evolution of ST of CMIP6‐EM245 SAT in (a) 2030, (b) 2040, (c) 2050, (d) 2060, (e) 2070, (f) 2080, (g) 2090, (h) 2099 relative to 2015 under SSP245 scenario.