Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections. Issue 1 (14th October 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Shen, Cheng; Zha, Jinlin; Li, Zhibo; Azorin‐Molina, Cesar; Deng, Kaiqiang; Minola, Lorenzo; Chen, Deliang
• Is Part Of: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. Volume 1518:Issue 1(2022)
• Page Start: 249
• Page End: 263
• Publication Date: 2022-10-14
• Subjects: CMIP6 -- large ensembles -- near‐surface wind speed -- projections -- windy days; Medical sciences -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Science -- Periodicals; 610
• DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14910
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0077-8923

Abstract

Abstract: We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) and project its future changes under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the CESM2 has the best ability in reproducing the observed NSWS trends, although all models examined are generally not doing well. Based on projections of CESM2, the global NSWS will decrease from 2021 to 2100 under all three SSPs. The projected NSWS declines significantly over the north of 20°N, especially across North America, Europe, and the mid‐to‐high latitudes of Asia; meanwhile, it increases over the south of 20°N. Under SSP585, there would be more light‐windy days and fewer strong‐windy days than those under SSP245, which leads to a significant global NSWS decline. Robust hemispheric‐asymmetric changes in the NSWS could be due to the temperature gradient in the two hemispheres under global warming, with −1.2%, −3.5%, and −4.1% in the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.8%, 1.0%, and 1.5% in the Southern Hemisphere, for the near‐term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060), and long‐term (2081–2100), respectively. Abstract : We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) and project its future changes under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Results show that the CESM2 has the best ability in reproducing the observed NSWS trends, although all models examined are generally not doing well.