When is gold an effective hedge against inflation?. (December 2022) - Valadkhani, Abbas
Abstract: Using threshold and piecewise regression models on monthly data (January 1969–March 2021), we examine the asymmetric effects of inflation and the US ten-year Treasury bond interest rate on gold price returns, identifying two distinct regimes. Inter alia, it is found that the responsiveness of gold returns to changes in inflation and interest rate depends on the magnitude of monthly inflation itself. Given the recent multi-trillion-dollar stimulus packages, the US is likely to switch into a 'high' inflation regime (as defined by our endogenously determined threshold), leading to gold once again becoming a potent hedge against inflation. The results support the view that when monthly inflation in the US exceeds 0.55%, gold exhibits significant responses to changes in both inflation and the ten-year Treasury interest rate. However, when inflation is moderate or low, gold remains somewhat non-responsive. We thus argue that such asymmetric and size-dependent responses are the main causes of the lack of consensus in the literature regarding the hedging capability of gold. Highlights: We determine when gold is more likely to become an effective hedge against inflation. Inflation and ten-year Treasury rate asymmetrically affect gold price returns. The responsiveness of gold returns depends on the magnitude of inflation. As we enter a high-inflation regime, gold is poised to reclaim its hedging potency in these uncertain times.