Where is the EU–UK relationship heading? A conjoint survey experiment of Brexit trade-offs. (March 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hix, Simon; van der Linden, Clifton; Massie, Joanna; Pickup, Mark; Savoie, Justin
• Other Names: De Vries Catherine E guest-editor.; Leuffen Dirk guest-editor.; Schimmelfennig Frank guest-editor.
• Is Part Of: European Union politics. Volume 24:Number 1(2023)
• Page Start: 184
• Page End: 205
• Publication Date: 2023-03
• Subjects: Brexit -- conjoint experiment -- external differentiation -- public opinion; European Union countries -- Politics and government -- Periodicals; 320.9405
• DOI: 10.1177/14651165221123155
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1465-1165

Abstract

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) is the start of a new relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU). As the consequences of Brexit unfold, there will be pressure to change the TCA, either in a "softer" or "harder" direction. To determine the potential medium-term direction of the EU–UK relationship, we conducted a conjoint survey experiment with a sample of British voters, where we asked them to choose between different hypothetical package deals. When faced with such choices, British citizens overall mostly support a softer relationship in which the UK applies EU regulatory standards in return for greater access to the single market. However, Leave voters most often support a much harder trade-off of full regulatory sovereignty but continued restrictions on UK exports.