Quantifying policy gaps for achieving the net-zero GHG emissions target in the U.S. light-duty vehicle market through electrification. (20th December 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ou, Shiqi; Lin, Zhenhong; Jiang, Yilan; Zhang, Shengyong
• Is Part Of: Journal of cleaner production. Volume 380:Part 2(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-12-20
• Subjects: Consumer welfare -- Electric vehicle -- Vehicle and energy policy -- Greenhouse gas emissions target -- Internal combustion engine vehicle banning -- Light-duty vehicle; Factory and trade waste -- Management -- Periodicals; Manufactures -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Déchets industriels -- Gestion -- Périodiques; Usines -- Aspect de l'environnement -- Périodiques; 628.5
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.135000
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-6526

Abstract

Abstract: The U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) industry, a major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sector, is embracing decarbonization. Considering only electrification pathways, this study uses publicly-available tools – MA3T and VISION on vehicle market penetration, fleet accounting and life-cycle analysis to quantify the policy gaps for LDVs to achieve the net-zero GHG emissions target in nine vehicle penetration cases under two electricity mix scenarios, including the U.S. administration's decarbonization strategy – 100% clean electricity by 2035. The MA3T model is a multinomial discrete choice model for market share projection by vehicle technology, and the VISION is a vehicle stocks and GHG emissions projection model by using vehicle and travel characteristics. This study projects the impacts of technology and policy enforcement on shaping the dynamics and decarbonization of the LDV market. Achieving the expected improvement of battery technology and charging infrastructure is critical but can only reduce the 2050 GHG emissions to 48–54% of the 2020 level under the electricity renewable mix scenario. It is almost impossible to achieve a 100% battery electric vehicle stock by 2050 and the 2050 net-zero target in the LDV industry unless ban of internal combustion engine technology is implemented starting in 2035 and under the 2035 100% clean electricity scenario. These extreme conditions also sacrifice most from the consumer welfare perspective. A greater policy forcing intensity accelerates plug-in electric vehicle penetration, while with declining marginal effect and reduced consumer welfare. Among the investigated policy scenarios, the policy forcing intensity equivalent to a fuel tax of $1–2 per gasoline gallon reduces the most GHG emissions while keeping a positive consumer welfare. Highlights: Improvement of battery and charging reduces the GHG in 2050 to 48–54% of 2020. Vehicle stock is hardly to be 100% BEVs, and much room for ICE technology by 2050. ICE ban with clean electricity helps be net-zero GHG by 2050 but it costs the most. A greater policy intensity leads to more PEVs but results in less consumer welfare. A fuel tax of $1–2/gallon cuts the most GHG while with a positive consumer welfare.