The effect of time-intervals in characterizing price-related uncertainties in techno-economic analysis. (20th December 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gupta, Ajay; Williams, Eric; Gaustad, Gabrielle
• Is Part Of: Journal of cleaner production. Volume 380:Part 2(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-12-20
• Subjects: Techno-economic analysis -- Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis -- Price & cost forecasting -- Rare earth -- Disk drives -- Recycling; Factory and trade waste -- Management -- Periodicals; Manufactures -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Déchets industriels -- Gestion -- Périodiques; Usines -- Aspect de l'environnement -- Périodiques; 628.5
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134929
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-6526

Abstract

Highlights: Single sample Monte Carlo inflates price-driven uncertainty. Time-interval of historical data used significantly affects uncertainty outcomes. Understanding price uncertainty requires knowledge of purchase/sales frequency. Dynamic sampling Monte Carlo could offer simple alternate uncertainty analysis. Analysts should use conservative assumptions on shorter time-intervals.