Simulations for CMIP6 With the AWI Climate Model AWI‐CM‐1‐1. (9th September 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Semmler, Tido; Danilov, Sergey; Gierz, Paul; Goessling, Helge F.; Hegewald, Jan; Hinrichs, Claudia; Koldunov, Nikolay; Khosravi, Narges; Mu, Longjiang; Rackow, Thomas; Sein, Dmitry V.; Sidorenko, Dmitry; Wang, Qiang; Jung, Thomas
• Is Part Of: Journal of advances in modeling earth systems. Volume 12:Number 9(2020)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2020-09-09
• Subjects: global climate model -- AWI climate model -- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project -- climate change -- unstructured mesh; Geological modeling -- Periodicals; Climatology -- Periodicals; Geochemical modeling -- Periodicals; 551.5011
• DOI: 10.1029/2019MS002009
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1942-2466

Abstract

Abstract: The Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI‐CM) participates for the first time in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), CMIP6. The sea ice‐ocean component, FESOM, runs on an unstructured mesh with horizontal resolutions ranging from 8 to 80 km. FESOM is coupled to the Max Planck Institute atmospheric model ECHAM 6.3 at a horizontal resolution of about 100 km. Using objective performance indices, it is shown that AWI‐CM performs better than the average of CMIP5 models. AWI‐CM shows an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.2°C, which is similar to the CMIP5 average, and a transient climate response of 2.1°C which is slightly higher than the CMIP5 average. The negative trend of Arctic sea‐ice extent in September over the past 30 years is 20–30% weaker in our simulations compared to observations. With the strongest emission scenario, the AMOC decreases by 25% until the end of the century which is less than the CMIP5 average of 40%. Patterns and even magnitude of simulated temperature and precipitation changes at the end of this century compared to present‐day climate under the strong emission scenario SSP585 are similar to the multi‐model CMIP5 mean. The simulations show a 11°C warming north of the Barents Sea and around 2°C to 3°C over most parts of the ocean as well as a wetting of the Arctic, subpolar, tropical, and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, in the northern middle latitudes in boreal summer and autumn as well as in the southern middle latitudes, a more zonal atmospheric flow is projected throughout the year. Plain Language Summary: The Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) participates for the first time with a global climate model in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results of CMIP6 and previous model comparison projects feed into the next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC assessment reports include information on past and expected climate change in the future and is written for policy‐ and decision‐makers as well as for the general public. The main characteristics of the AWI climate model are described and compared to models from previous intercomparison projects. The projected global warming in AWI‐CM is similar to the average warming predicted by climate models in the previous intercomparison project. However, the Arctic sea‐ice extent declines faster than typical previous estimates. Areas that are wet in present‐day climate become wetter, and areas that are dry in present‐day climate become drier in the future—consistent with previous climate model simulations. The ocean currents remain rather stable in the AWI climate projections, which leads to a continued warm Gulf stream and therefore an only slightly reduced warming of the North Atlantic and parts of Europe compared to other middle‐latitude regions. Key Points: The paper describes contributions of AWI‐CM, which employs a sea‐ice ocean component formulated on unstructured meshes, to CMIP6 Equilibrium climate sensitivity is similar to average of CMIP5 projections; transient climate response is slightly above average Response patterns are similar to CMIP5 with more pronounced Arctic sea ice loss and a more stable AMOC compared to other systems