Wind turbine output power prediction and optimization based on a novel adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with the moving window. (15th January 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bilal, Boudy; Adjallah, Kondo Hloindo; Sava, Alexandre; Yetilmezsoy, Kaan; Ouassaid, Mohammed
• Is Part Of: Energy. Volume 263:Part E(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-01-15
• Subjects: Wind turbine -- Time series horizon -- Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system -- Moving window approach -- Power prediction; Power resources -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.126159
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-5442

Abstract

Abstract: This study focuses on predicting the output power of wind turbines (WTs) using the wind speed and WT operational characteristics. The main contribution of this work is a model identification method based on an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) through multi-source data fusion on a moving window (MoW). The proposed ANFIS-MoW-based approach was applied to data in different time series windows, namely the very short-term, short-term, medium-term and long-term time horizons. Data collected from a 30-MW wind farm on the west coast of Nouakchott (Mauritania) were used in the computational analysis. In comparison to nonparametric models from the literature and models employing artificial intelligence machine learning techniques, the proposed ANFIS-MoW model demonstrated superior predictions for the output power of the WT with the fusion of very few data collected from different WTs. Moreover, for various time series windows (TSW) and meteorological conditions, additional benchmarking demonstrated that the ANFIS-MoW-based method outperformed five existing ANFIS-based models, including grid partition (ANFIS-GP), subtractive clustering (ANFIS-SC), fuzzy c-means clustering (ANFIS-FCM), genetic algorithm (ANFIS-GA), and particle swarm optimization (ANFIS-PSO). The results indicated that the suggested methodology is a promising soft-computing tool for accurately estimating the WT output power for WTs' sustainability through better control of their operation. Graphical abstract: Image 1 Highlights: A novel ANFIS-based moving window approach for wind power prediction is proposed. The proposed model is capable of wind power forecasting for different time series horizon. Real dataset from 30-MW wind farm in Africa is employed for the modeling study. Performance of the applied neuro-fuzzy tool is validated on various climatic conditions. Superiority of the ANFIS-MoW model is approved compared to existing models.