Uncertainty in individual risk judgments associates with vulnerability and curtailed climate adaptation. (1st January 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Noll, Brayton; Filatova, Tatiana; Need, Ariana; de Vries, Peter
• Is Part Of: Journal of environmental management. Volume 325:Part A(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-01-01
• Subjects: Protection Motivation Theory -- Theory of Planned Behavior -- Adaptation -- Floods -- Risk-uncertain -- Risk-aware; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Environmental management -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Periodicals; 363.705
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116462
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4797

Abstract

Abstract: Risk assessments are key for the effective management of potential environmental threats. Across probabilistic phenomena, climate change is an exemplar of paramount uncertainties. These uncertainties have been embraced in supporting governments' decisions; yet receive scarce attention when studying individual behavior. Analyzing a survey conducted in the USA, China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands (N=6242), we explore socio-economic, psychological, and behavioral differences between individuals who can subjectively assess risks, and those who are risk-uncertain. We find that risk-uncertain individuals are more likely to belong to societal subgroups classically considered as vulnerable, and have reduced capacities and intentions to adapt to hazards—specifically floods. The distinctions between risk-aware and risk-uncertain individuals indicate that ignoring differences in individuals' capacity to assess risks could amount to persistent vulnerability and undermine climate-resilience efforts. While we use floods emblematically, these finding have consequences for the standard practice of dropping or bootstrapping uncertain responses, irrespective of the hazard, with implications for environmental management. Highlights: Individuals can and do differentiate between risks they are aware of and risks they are uncertain about. Risk-uncertainty decreases the likelihood an individual will intend actions to mitigate a threat. Risk-uncertain individuals are more likely to belong to subgroups classically considered vulnerable Risk-uncertain individuals have reduced self-efficacy and are more risk adverse.