Estimates of the Potential Indirect Damage to China by Restricting Energy Increase to Peak Carbon Emissions. Issue 11 (15th November 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Huang, Chengfang; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Liu, Fenggui
• Is Part Of: Earth's future. Volume 10:Issue 11(2022)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2022-11-15
• Subjects: Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences; Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002697
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-4277

Abstract

Abstract: Balanced against this increase in energy demand are energy security and climate warming issues. Restricting the increase in energy demand for peaking carbon emissions will not only directly affect production in sectors but also cause a broader indirect economic impact through intricate industrial linkages. Under the two requirements of adapting to warming and peaking carbon emissions before 2030, we accordingly constructed developmental and restrictive scenarios of China and improved the adaptive Input–Output model from the demand side to evaluate the indirect economic impact. The main findings were as follows: (a) the increase in end‐use demand for conventional energy in 2030 will be 24.43% of energy consumption in 2017 (TEC2017 ) under the restrictive scenario, and the reduction of this increase will be about 42.98% of TEC2017 in comparison with the developmental scenario. (b) Due to this reduction, the possible indirect damage in 2030 will be 14.96% of the GDP in 2017, and the clean energy level in 2030 will be 20 times the hydropower generation in 2017, which can offset this damage. (c) The industrial sector with high output and high energy will suffer the most indirect damage. The quantitative results demonstrate the great challenges that China will face in clean energy transition. Plain Language Summary: China has committed to the world to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030. The energy mix and technology in China will therefore change dramatically and restricting the use of conventional fossil fuels will be a necessary measure. However, it is well known that to adapt to climate change and economic development, the demand for end‐use energy by the economic sector will increase. As a result, two sets of scenarios have been developed under reasonable assumptions and the economic impact results have been assessed through economic modeling. The results showed that China's end‐use energy will be reduced by 42.98% compared to that for climate change adaptation to meet the commitment, with the resulting indirect damage to economic development reaching 14.96% of GDP, while the industrial sector, which is highly dependent on energy, will suffer the most. In light of these results, we recognize that China faces a daunting and urgent energy transition that requires not only energy technology innovation, efficiency improvements, or a strong focus on clean energy but also measures to reduce energy dependence for economic and restructuring economic production. These findings are important and necessary for policy‐makers. Key Points: China's goal of peaking carbon emissions will restrict the use of conventional energy, which is in conflict with the demand for warming The indirect damage to the economy from restricted sectoral end‐use energy will be 14.96% of GDP compared to warming The industrial sector with high output and dependence on energy will be the most affected by restrictions on end‐use energy