The Association Between Rainfall, Temperature, and Reported Drinking Water Source: A Multi‐Country Analysis. (14th November 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Buchwald, Andrea G.; Thomas, Evan; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Grover, Elise; Kotloff, Karen; Carlton, Elizabeth J.
• Is Part Of: GeoHealth. Volume 6:Number 11(2022)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2022-11-14
• Subjects: WASH -- climate resilience -- water infrastructure -- safe water -- weather -- drinking water; Environmental health -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; Periodicals; 616.98
• DOI: 10.1029/2022GH000605
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2471-1403

Abstract

Abstract: Climate change may alter access to safe drinking water, with important implications for health. We assessed the relationship between temperature and rainfall and utilization of basic drinking water (BDW) in The Gambia, Mozambique, Pakistan, and Kenya. The outcomes of interest were (a) whether the reported drinking water source used in the past 2 weeks met the World Health Organization definition of BDW and (b) use of a BDW source that was always available. Temperature and precipitation data were compiled from weather stations and satellite data and summarized to account for long‐ and short‐term weather patterns and lags. We utilized random forests and logistic regression to identify key weather variables that predicted outcomes by site and the association between important weather variables and BDW use. Higher temperatures were associated with decreased BDW use at three of four sites and decreased use of BDW that is always available at all four sites. Increasing rainfall, both in the long‐ and short‐term, was associated with increased BDW use in three sites. We found evidence for interactions between household wealth and weather variables at two sites, suggesting lower wealth populations may be more sensitive to weather‐driven changes in water access. Changes in temperature and precipitation can alter safe water use in low‐resource settings—investigating drivers for these relationships can inform efforts to build climate resilience. Plain Language Summary: This manuscript examines the association between temperature, precipitation and the use of safe drinking water sources in four low and middle‐income countries. Climate is known to impact the risk of diarrheal disease, but the potential mechanisms driving this relationship are poorly described. We hypothesized that both short and long‐term trends in temperature and precipitation may affect both improved water source availability and usage in low‐resource settings. We utilized data from a case‐control study on diarrheal disease with data on household water source use and availability. Machine learning was used to identify the most important weather predictors of households using "basic drinking water" (BDW) as defined by the World Health Organization. We found higher temperatures and decreasing rainfall were associated with decreased BDW use overall at three of the four sites. Notably, we also found evidence of resilience to climate impacts linked to safe drinking water availability and household wealth. Our findings have broad‐reaching implications for climate resilient infrastructure development and provide critical evidence that increasing prevalence of drought and rising temperatures can lead to use of less‐safe water sources. Key Points: Access to and reported use of basic drinking water (BDW) is dependent on rainfall and temperature in The Gambia, Mozambique, Pakistan, and Kenya Higher temperatures are associated with decreased access to and use of BDW Climate change threatens access to safe drinking water in settings where infrastructure is vulnerable to rainfall and temperature