The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information. Issue 11 (16th November 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ruane, Alex C.; Vautard, Robert; Ranasinghe, Roshanka; Sillmann, Jana; Coppola, Erika; Arnell, Nigel; Cruz, Faye Abigail; Dessai, Suraje; Iles, Carley E.; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Jones, Richard G.; Rahimi, Mohammad; Carrascal, Daniel Ruiz; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Servonnat, Jérôme; Sörensson, Anna A.; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Tebaldi, Claudia; Wang, Wen; Zaaboul, Rashyd
• Is Part Of: Earth's future. Volume 10:Issue 11(2022)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2022-11-16
• Subjects: Climatic Impact‐Driver (CID) -- climate information -- climate hazards -- climate projections -- climate risk -- climate services; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences; Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002803
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-4277

Abstract

Abstract: The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the "climatic impact‐driver" (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as "physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions." We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities. Plain Language Summary: Climatic impact‐drivers (CIDs) are climate conditions that affect the things we care about in nature and society. We deepen the motivation and definitions that allowed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to identify 33 distinct CID categories including extreme heat, hydrological drought, severe wind storm, permafrost, relative sea level, marine heatwaves, and air pollution weather. Each CID category may be analyzed with specific indices that inform adaptation, mitigation and risk management. The CID Framework allows us to avoid universally labeling a climate condition as a "hazard, " recognizing that the same physical condition may be detrimental for some and beneficial or inconsequential for others. This approach allows climate scientists to engage with impacts and risk experts to target specific tolerance thresholds that are system‐ and sector‐dependent. This more comprehensive description of the CID Framework provides a practical foundation for climate research, climate and impact model development, risk assessments and climate service product creation. Key Points: Deepens explanation of Climatic Impact‐Driver (CID) Framework utilized in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Reports Distinguishes practical CID types and categories that allows climate information to target conditions that affect the things we care about Neutral Framework does not pre‐judge beneficial, detrimental or neutral outcomes which are system‐ and sector‐dependent