Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change. Issue 18 (11th August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Long, Teng; Tang, Junfeng; Pilfold, Nicholas W.; Zhao, Xuzhe; Dong, Tingfa
• Is Part Of: Ecology and evolution. Volume 11:Issue 18(2021)
• Page Start: 12779
• Page End: 12789
• Publication Date: 2021-08-11
• Subjects: climate change -- Davidia involucrate -- dove tree -- ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) -- habitat suitability -- range shifts; Ecology -- Periodicals; Evolution -- Periodicals; 577.05
• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8023
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2045-7758

Abstract

Abstract: Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one‐third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high‐latitude regions. Similarly, at least one‐fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate . Abstract : Davidia involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high‐latitude regions