Evolutionary leap in large‐scale flood risk assessment needed. (29th December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Bates, Paul D.; de Bruijn, Karin; Castellarin, Attilio; Kreibich, Heidi; Priest, Sally; Schröter, Kai; Bagli, Stefano; Blöschl, Günter; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Gouldby, Ben; Klijn, Frans; Lammersen, Rita; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Ridder, Nina; Terink, Wilco; Viavattene, Christophe; Viglione, Alberto; Zanardo, Stefano; Merz, Bruno
• Is Part Of: Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Volume 5:Number 2(2018)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2017-12-29
• Subjects: Hydrology -- Periodicals; 553.705
• DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1266
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2049-1948

Abstract

Abstract : Current approaches for assessing large‐scale flood risks contravene the fundamental principles of the flood risk system functioning because they largely ignore basic interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, catchments, river‐floodplain systems, and socioeconomic processes. As a consequence, risk analyses are uncertain and might be biased. However, reliable risk estimates are required for prioritizing national investments in flood risk mitigation or for appraisal and management of insurance portfolios. We review several examples of process interactions and highlight their importance in shaping spatiotemporal risk patterns. We call for a fundamental redesign of the approaches used for large‐scale flood risk assessment. They need to be capable to form a basis for large‐scale flood risk management and insurance policies worldwide facing the challenge of increasing risks due to climate and global change. In particular, implementation of the European Flood Directive needs to be adjusted for the next round of flood risk mapping and development of flood risk management plans focusing on methods accounting for more process interactions in flood risk systems. WIREs Water 2018, 5:e1266. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1266 This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Engineering Water > Planning Water Abstract : Evolutionary leap in flood risk assessment methodologies is needed to reliably quantify real large‐scale risk used to inform national and river basin policies worldwide. On June 2013, large‐scale flood happened in the Elbe basin, Germany. The City of Grimma (Photo: André Künzelmann).