On the political feasibility of climate change mitigation pathways: Is it too late to keep warming below 1.5°C?. (23rd October 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Jewell, Jessica; Cherp, Aleh
• Is Part Of: Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Volume 11:Number 1(2020)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2019-10-23
• Subjects: political feasibility -- climate change mitigation -- decarbonization pathways -- integrated assessment models; Climatic changes -- Periodicals; Climatic changes; Periodicals; 363.7387405
• DOI: 10.1002/wcc.621
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1757-7780

Abstract

Abstract: Keeping global warming below 1.5°C is technically possible but is it politically feasible? Understanding political feasibility requires answering three questions: (a) " Feasibility of what ?, " (b) "Feasibility when and where?, " and (c) "Feasibility for whom? . " In relation to the 1.5°C target, these questions translate into (a) identifying specific actions comprising the 1.5°C pathways; (b) assessing the economic and political costs of these actions in different socioeconomic and political contexts; and (c) assessing the economic and institutional capacity of relevant social actors to bear these costs. This view of political feasibility stresses costs and capacities in contrast to the prevailing focus on benefits and motivations which mistakes desirability for feasibility. The evidence on the political feasibility of required climate actions is not systematic, but clearly indicates that the costs of required actions are too high in relation to capacities to bear these costs in relevant contexts. In the future, costs may decline and capacities may increase which would reduce political constraints for at least some solutions. However, this is unlikely to happen in time to avoid a temperature overshoot. Further research should focus on exploring the "dynamic political feasibility space" constrained by costs and capacities in order to find more feasible pathways to climate stabilization. This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand Abstract : Whether it is feasible to avoid dangerous climate change is a socio‐political as well as techno‐economic question. Here we present a systematic approach to assessing feasibility of climate actions by identifying the dynamic "feasibility frontier" delineated by political and economic costs of empirically observed climate actions and capacities of relevant actors. The feasibility frontier evolves as both costs and capacities change over time.