Coronavirus conspiracy beliefs, mistrust, and compliance: taking measurement seriously. Issue 14 (10th October 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Garry, John; Ford, Rob; Johns, Rob
• Is Part Of: Psychological medicine. Volume 52:Issue 14(2022)
• Page Start: 3116
• Page End: 3126
• Publication Date: 2022-10-10
• Subjects: Coronavirus conspiracies -- public opinion -- mistrust -- compliance -- survey design; Psychiatry -- Periodicals; Medicine and psychology -- Periodicals; Clinical psychology -- Periodicals; 616.89
• DOI: 10.1017/S0033291720005164
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0033-2917

Abstract

Abstract: Background: Freeman et al . (2020a, Psychological Medicine, 21, 1–13) argue that there is widespread support for coronavirus conspiracy theories in England. We hypothesise that their estimates of prevalence are inflated due to a flawed research design. When asking respondents to their survey to agree or disagree with pro-conspiracy statements, they used a biased set of response options: four agree options and only one disagree option (and no 'don't know' option). We also hypothesise that due to these flawed measures, the Freeman et al. approach under -estimates the strength of the correlation between conspiracy beliefs and compliance. Finally, we hypothesise that, due to reliance on bivariate correlations, Freeman et al. over -estimate the causal connection between conspiracy beliefs and compliance. Methods: In a pre-registered study, we conduct an experiment embedded in a survey of a representative sample of 2057 adults in England (fieldwork: 16−19 July 2020). Results: Measured using our advocated 'best practice' approach (balanced response options, with a don't know option), prevalence of support for coronavirus conspiracies is only around five-eighths (62.3%) of that indicated by the Freeman et al. approach. We report mixed results on our correlation and causation hypotheses. Conclusions: To avoid over-estimating prevalence of support for coronavirus conspiracies, we advocate using a balanced rather than imbalanced set of response options, and including a don't know option.