A model of asymmetric conflict outcome – Sensitivity to friction and choice of strategy in counterinsurgencies. Issue 6 (21st November 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lillbacka, Ralf
• Is Part Of: Comparative strategy. Volume 41:Issue 6(2022)
• Page Start: 543
• Page End: 562
• Publication Date: 2022-11-21
• Subjects: International relations -- Periodicals; Strategy -- Periodicals; 327
• DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2022.2130678
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0149-5933

Abstract

Abstract: The article assesses a model predicting outcome in counterinsurgencies based on the counterinsurgent's exposure to external friction and strategy. Unfavorable opinions, as well as insurgents' access to third-party support and sanctuaries, constitute sources of external friction. Strategies were categorized as mainly kinetic or population-centric. The model predicts: (1) counterinsurgents lose in contexts with high external friction regardless of strategy; (2) counterinsurgents applying a population-centric strategy win if external friction is low; (3) counterinsurgents applying a purely kinetic strategy win if external friction is low only by obtaining distinct tactical superiority. The model correctly predicted 27 of 30 examined cases.