Hurricanes and Anomalous Heat in the Caribbean. Issue 21 (2nd November 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Guido, Zack; Allen, Teddy; Mason, Simon; Méndez‐Lázaro, Pablo
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 49:Issue 21(2022)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2022-11-02
• Subjects: compound hazards -- Caribbean -- hurricanes -- heat waves -- heat index -- small island developing states; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1029/2022GL099740
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: Co‐occurring hazards present unparalleled challenges to development and disaster recovery. In this study, we investigate the relationship between anomalous heat in the aftermath of tropical cyclones in the eastern Caribbean between 1991 and 2020. We analyze the spatial patterns of anomalous heat index (HI) values for 53 tropical storms and hurricanes using a Lagrangian analysis framework. Furthermore, we analyze temporal patterns of 205 city‐storms pairings. The spatial patterns displayed distinct and statistically significant areas of anomalously warm conditions regardless of the storm intensity classification. Moreover, all 205 city‐storm events had positive HI anomalies following the storms' passage with a maximum of 5°C. The results show that HI anomalies can be high, have a time lag of days, and be observed in locations not directly impacted by the storm. The results have implications for tropical cyclones preparedness, including suggesting that preparedness include informing the public about heat impacts. Plain Language Summary: Two or more extreme events that are coincident in time or that occur in close succession present unparalleled challenges to development and disaster recovery. It is well known that tropical cyclones cause long‐lived damage from strong winds, storm surges, intense rain, and/or flooding. Equally, heat is a main concern for public health. However, heat in the aftermath of tropical cyclones has not been a focus.We analyze 53 tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean between 1991 and 2020 and 205 storm‐city events. The storms' heat index (HI) values are statistically significantly warmer during the storm than average in some regions, regardless of groupings of storms by their strength. The HI values before and after storms passed main cities in 14 Caribbean islands further show that in all 205 cases, warm HI anomalies follow the storms' passage, with values as high as 5°C (9 Fahrenheit). The results show that HI anomalies following tropical cyclones can be high, have maximums that occur several days after the storm's passage, and can be observed in locations that are not directly impacted by the storm. The results suggest tropical cyclone preparedness should include informing the public about heat risk. Key Points: Areas around tropical cyclones have heat index (HI) values significantly warmer than average, a result insensitive to storm strength Positive HI anomalies occur after the cyclones passage in all storms; the maximum anomalies range from 0.3°C to 5.2°C Anomalous heat can be observed in areas 100s of kilometers away from the central location of the tropical storm