Disruption of Social Orders in Societal Transitions as Affective Control of Uncertainty. (February 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hoey, Jesse; Schröder, Tobias
• Other Names: Kroska Amy guest-editor.; Powell Brian guest-editor.; Rogers Kimberly B. guest-editor.; Smith-Lovin Lynn guest-editor.
• Is Part Of: American behavioral scientist. Volume 67:Number 2(2023)
• Page Start: 311
• Page End: 331
• Publication Date: 2023-02
• Subjects: Bayesian affect control theory -- social order -- societal change -- uncertainty; Social sciences -- Periodicals; Political science -- Periodicals; United States -- Social conditions -- Periodicals; United States -- Politics and government -- Periodicals; 300
• DOI: 10.1177/00027642211066055
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0002-7642

Abstract

Bayesian affect control theory is a model of affect-driven social interaction under conditions of uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate how the operationalization of uncertainty in the model can be related to the disruption of social orders—societal pressures to adapt to ongoing environmental and technological change. First, we study the theoretical tradeoffs between three kinds of uncertainty as groups navigate external problems: validity (the predictability of the environment, including of other agents), coherence (the predictability of interpersonal affective dynamics), and dependence (the predictability of affective meanings). Second, we discuss how these uncertainty tradeoffs are related to contemporary political conflict and polarization in the context of societal transitions. To illustrate the potential of our model to analyze the socio-emotional consequences of uncertainty, we present a simulation of diverging individual affective meanings of occupational identities under uncertainty in a climate change mitigation scenario based on events in Germany. Finally, we sketch a possible research agenda to substantiate the novel, but yet mostly conjectural, ideas put forward in this paper.