After defeat: how governing parties respond to electoral loss. Issue 4 (1st October 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Margalit, Yotam; Slough, Tara; Ting, Michael M.
• Is Part Of: Political science research and methods. Volume 10:Issue 4(2022)
• Page Start: 739
• Page End: 758
• Publication Date: 2022-10-01
• Subjects: Political parties -- ideological positioning -- intraparty governance -- selectorate -- leadership selection; Political science -- Periodicals; 320
• DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2021.62
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2049-8470

Abstract

Abstract: How do governing parties respond in terms of ideological positioning when voted out of office? We study both theoretically and empirically the factors that shape parties' responses following a loss. Studying national elections in advanced industrialized democracies over the past 70 years, we show that parties tend to counter their pre-election shifts, and do so particularly strongly following defeat. The extent of these ideological shifts is more limited in parties with a larger selectorate voting on the party leadership. Moreover, we find that subsequent to loss, parties are less likely to run on a centrist platform. Notably, shifting away from the center is associated with a higher probability of returning to power. We then introduce a dynamic model of party leadership selection and platform positioning. The model produces patterns of ideological positions over time that are consistent with our empirical findings.