'A Formula Which I Derived Many Years Ago' Boole, Reichenbach and Popper on Probability and Conditionals. Issue 4 (2nd October 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Rott, Hans
• Is Part Of: History and philosophy of logic. Volume 43:Issue 4(2022)
• Page Start: 383
• Page End: 390
• Publication Date: 2022-10-02
• Subjects: Probability logic -- conditional probability -- conditionals -- Boole -- Reichenbach -- Popper; Logic -- Periodicals; 160.905
• DOI: 10.1080/01445340.2021.2003670
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0144-5340

Abstract

Abstract : This note presents a very brief history of the observation that the probability of the material conditional A ⊃ B is in general different from, but cannot be less than, the conditional probability of B given A . The difference between the two probabilities is significant for the interpretation of conditionals and for the possibility of inductive probability. It can be quantitatively specified in so-called 'excess laws' for which Popper appears to have claimed priority. I argue that such a priority claim should be rejected and credit should instead be given, if to anyone, to Boole and Reichenbach instead.