'Peak Oil' as Classical Economic Process. Issue 5 (July 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Meynard, François
• Is Part Of: Energy & environment. Volume 25:Issue 5(2014)
• Page Start: 863
• Page End: 879
• Publication Date: 2014-07
• Subjects: Power resources -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Power resources -- Periodicals; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Energy policy -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Ressources énergétiques; Politique énergétique; Energy policy -- Environmental aspects; Power resources; Power resources -- Environmental aspects; Renewable energy sources; Periodicals; 333.7
• DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.25.5.863
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0958-305X

Abstract

Forecasts about 'peak oil", the limits of oil production, are the subject of controversies. 'Peak oil' forecasts are based on extrapolations of a priori chosen mathematical models fitted to field data. Scientifically that is not very sound. To clarify this point, in this paper 'peak oil' is modelled in a generic reductionist, approach, in which the conflicting dynamic between economic forces and physical laws are well identified. This model finds a natural interpretation just supress in a classical economic analysis frame. The 'peak oil' controversy is thus brought into the field of economic thought as a debate between classical and mainstream economics, in particular between an objective and a faith based appraisal about this historical event. The goal is not to improve forecasts about 'peak oil', which is very likely not a predictable event, but to propose an objective framework for the analysis of its systemic effects on economic production.