Risk factors for horse falls in New Zealand Thoroughbred jumps racing. (November 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Legg, K.A.; Bolwell, C.F.; Gee, E.K.; Gibson, M.J.; Rogers, C.W.
• Is Part Of: Veterinary journal. Volume 289(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-11
• Subjects: Epidemiology -- Horse falls -- Hurdle racing -- Racehorse -- Risk factors -- Steeplechase; Veterinary medicine -- Periodicals; 636
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2022.105915
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1090-0233

Abstract

Abstract: This study aimed to determine the incidence of, and risk factors for race-day horse falls in Thoroughbred jumps (hurdle and steeplechase) racing in New Zealand. Incidence rates for race-day horse falls in jumps races from 2005/6 – 2018/19 racing seasons ( n = 13, 648 race day starts) were calculated per 1000 starts. Univariable and multivariable analyses of race-, horse- and jockey-level risk factors for horse falls were conducted using Poisson regression in a generalised linear mixed model. The incidence rate of horse falls in jumps races was 42 (95 % confidence intervals [CI], 39 – 45) per 1000 starts. Horse falls in steeplechase races were 1.6 (95 % CI, 1.4 – 1.9) times more likely than hurdle races. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) for horses falling at the last three jumps in comparison with the first three jumps was 3.1 (95 % CI, 2.8 – 3.5) for hurdle and 4.4 (95 % CI, 3.9 – 5.0) for steeplechase races. Greater jockey (age, P = 0.02) and horse experience ( P = 0.001) were associated with a lower IRR of falls ( P = 0.05). Longer races ( P = 0.02) and those held in autumn compared to winter (IRR 1.4; 95 % CI, 1.0 – 1.8; P = 0.05) were associated with a higher rate of falling in steeplechase races. A regulatory change enhancing discretionary ability of jockeys to pull up 'in-race' was associated with reduced horse falls (IRR 0.65; 95 % CI, 0.51 – 0.82; P = 0.001). Pragmatic rule changes within the industry can have a positive effect on reducing risk and improving equine welfare. Highlights: Horse fall incidence rates (IR) 1.6 times greater in NZ steeplechase than hurdle races. Longer or early season races were associated with higher IR ratio (IRR) of horse falls. The last three jumps in a race had higher fall rates than the first three jumps. Greater jockey and horse experience were associated with lower IRR of horse falls. An increasing number of horses pulled up resulted in a decreased IR of horse falls.