Comparing COVID-19 between Prisons and the Community. Issue 5 (20th October 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bucklen, Kristofer Bret; LaForest, Michael
• Is Part Of: Corrections. Volume 7:Issue 5(2022)
• Page Start: 391
• Page End: 397
• Publication Date: 2022-10-20
• Subjects: Prisons -- COVID-19 -- public policy -- counterfactual estimates; Punishment -- United States -- Periodicals; Criminal justice, Administration of -- United States -- Periodicals; 364.60973
• DOI: 10.1080/23774657.2022.2110174
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2377-4657

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Policy-makers need the best available evidence to inform policy decisions during public health emergencies. We illustrate this in the context of temporary prisoner release decisions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We leverage parolee COVID-19 mortality rates in PA to show that prior estimates of the expected COVID-19 mortality rate for prisoners if released into the community, calculated from community rates, underestimate expected deaths by a factor of over 2.5. These results suggest a substantially smaller return to public health from temporary prisoner release programs than previously estimated and that, in some settings, such programs can increase COVID-19 risk. They also highlight the importance of selecting an appropriate comparison group when estimating counterfactuals to inform public policy.