How to visualise futures studies concepts: Revision of the futures cone. (October 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gall, Tjark; Vallet, Flore; Yannou, Bernard
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 143(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-10
• Subjects: Futures studies -- Futures cone -- Scenario planning -- Uncertainty -- Cone of possibilities; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2022.103024
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Abstract: Futures studies concepts are complex and challenging to communicate and elaborate on. Visual artefacts exist to aid this process. Variants of futures cones, plausibility cones, or cones of possibilities are most common. Yet, the is a lack of scientific discussion and consistency. A review of what does exist can lead to a more coherent communication of concepts. This aids futures literacy and enables more targeted theoretical elaborations using the cone as an intermediary object. We pose the questions (1) how futures cones have been used so far to visualise concepts of futures studies and (2) how characteristics can be consolidated into a revised version. We compiled 14 representations and compared and analysed them. We identified and described 14 characteristics, including three shared between most cones, eight derived from existing ones, and three newly proposed ones, namely black swans, unknown unknowns, and exponential growth. This culminates in a revised futures cone that shall: (1) Act as a more accurate depiction of futures studies concepts in their uncertainty, ambiguity, and multiplicity. (2) Strengthen the applicability and understanding within and outside the futures studies field. (3) Refine the futures cones as a canvas for conceptual and theoretical discussions of futures studies concepts. Highlights: The futures cone is one of the most common artefacts to visualise concepts of futures studies. Various versions of the futures cone exist, yet there is a lack of systematic treatment in scientific literature. We compile, describe, and analyse existing versions to map potentials, characteristics, and differences. We propose an adapted futures cone that builds on and extends existing visualisations. A formalised cone graphic can contribute to the precise and broader elaboration of futures studies concepts.