A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19. (13th August 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bonander, Carl; Stranges, Debora; Gustavsson, Johanna; Almgren, Matilda; Inghammar, Malin; Moghaddassi, Mahnaz; Nilsson, Anton; Capdevila Pujol, Joan; Steves, Claire; Franks, Paul W; Gomez, Maria F; Fall, Tove; Björk, Jonas
• Is Part Of: European journal of public health. Volume 32:Number 5(2022)
• Page Start: 799
• Page End: 806
• Publication Date: 2022-08-13
• Subjects: Epidemiology -- Europe -- Periodicals; Public health -- Europe -- Periodicals; 362.109405
• DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckac101
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1101-1262

Abstract

Abstract: Background: This article investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviours and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (March to July 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household. Methods: We used a regression discontinuity design—in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden ( n = 96 053; age range: 39–79 years) and national register data (age range: 39–100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21 804) and confirmed cases ( n = 48 984)—to estimate the effects of the policy. Results: Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (−13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (−16%) at the 70-year threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1800–2700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification. Conclusions: It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.