The discontinuous effect of economic performance on political turnover. Issue 17 (7th October 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pan, Chen-Yu; Tsai, Pi-Han
• Is Part Of: Applied economics letters. Volume 29:Issue 17(2022)
• Page Start: 1564
• Page End: 1570
• Publication Date: 2022-10-07
• Subjects: Political turnover -- voting behaviour -- economic growth -- economic voting; Economics -- Periodicals; Economics, Mathematical -- Periodicals; 330
• DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1947956
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1350-4851

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This paper re-examines the asymmetric marginal effect of economic variables on voting. By applying the comprehensive cross-country panel data of democracies from 1975 to 2016, the empirical results demonstrate that there is a striking discontinuity in the relationship between economic performance and political turnover, in the sense that voters are sensitive to incumbents' economic performance when the countries are during the economic prosperity but are less sensitive during the economic recession. The results are robust no matter we use the absolute growth rate or relative growth rate of the country, and no matter voters' reaction in response to political turnover is conditional on the institutional factor or not.