The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems. Issue 8 (11th August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wild, Thomas B.; Khan, Zarrar; Zhao, Mengqi; Suriano, Micaela; Bereslawski, Julia L.; Roberts, Paula; Casado, Jose; Gaviño‐Novillo, Marcelo; Clarke, Leon; Hejazi, Mohamad; Miralles‐Wilhelm, Fernando; Muñoz‐Castillo, Raul; Vernon, Chris; Snyder, Abigail; Yarlagadda, Brinda; Birnbaum, Abigail; Lamontagne, Jonathan; White, Dave; Ojeda‐Matos, Glorynel
• Is Part Of: Earth's future. Volume 9:Issue 8(2021)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2021-08-11
• Subjects: multisector dynamics -- coupled human‐earth systems -- food‐energy‐water nexus -- integrated assessment modeling -- Argentina -- climate change impacts; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences; Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001970
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-4277

Abstract

Abstract: This study seeks to understand how Argentina's energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co‐evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina's sub‐national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder‐engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid‐century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina's agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50, 000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net‐zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid‐century projects that Argentina could use 100, 000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina's river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate‐to‐severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate‐induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi‐scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human‐earth systems. Plain Language Summary: Many countries are undertaking ambitious national efforts to address societal priorities such as economic growth, sustainable development goals, and mid‐century strategies to address climate change. Understanding how energy, water, and land (EWL) systems may interact with one another and these strategies is advantageous for national planning, particularly for identifying synergistic interventions (e.g., investments in infrastructure, policies, and institutions). Through a stakeholder‐engaged study in Argentina, we demonstrate that the strategic value of such national analysis can be enhanced by accounting for (a) the interrelationships among the EWL sectors; (b) global forces such as socioeconomic, climate, and policy change, which have strong relevance for trade‐oriented economies like Argentina's; and (c) the nature of EWL change sub‐nationally, where many important planning decisions are made that collectively determine the success of national priorities. Results show that global change creates opportunities for Argentina to use its vast land resources to supply domestic and international demands for various crops. However, the burden of achieving this national opportunity could fall disproportionately on a subset of river basins within Argentina, including the Colorado and Negro basins. The methodology and resulting insights we present here are broadly applicable to other regions facing similar challenges, particularly in Latin America. Key Points: Socioeconomic, climate, and policy change could increase domestic and international demand for crops in Argentina (e.g., oil and biomass) This economic opportunity poses planning challenges at the sub‐national level, where many important energy‐water‐land decisions are made Key river basins may see increasing crop and water demands and declining natural water supply, suggesting a need for integrated planning