What moves international stock and bond markets?. (February 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Cenedese, Gino; Mallucci, Enrico
• Is Part Of: Journal of international money and finance. Volume 60(2016)
• Page Start: 94
• Page End: 113
• Publication Date: 2016-02
• Subjects: International capital flows -- Return decomposition -- International equity markets -- International bond markets -- Mutual funds; F31 -- G15; International finance -- Periodicals; Foreign exchange -- Periodicals; Finances internationales -- Périodiques; Change -- Périodiques; Foreign exchange; International finance; Periodicals; 332.04205
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.05.001
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0261-5606

Abstract

Abstract: We study the relation between international mutual fund flows and the different return components of aggregate equity and bond markets. First, we decompose international equity and bond market returns into changes in expectations of future real cash payments, interest rates, exchange rates, and discount rates. News about future cash flows, rather than discount rates, is the main driver of international stock returns. This evidence is in contrast with the typical results reported only for the US. Inflation news instead is the main driver of international bond returns. Next, we turn to the interaction between these return components and international portfolio flows. We find evidence consistent with price pressure, short-term trend chasing, and short-run overreaction in the equity market. We also find that international bond flows to emerging markets are more sensitive to interest rate shocks than equity flows. Highlights: We study the relation between flows and international equity and bond market returns. We decompose unexpected returns into different news components. News about future cash flows is the main driver of international stock returns. Inflation news instead is the main driver of international bond returns. We find evidence price action, short-term trend chasing and overreaction.