Investigation of Possible MODIS AOD Anomalies as Earthquake Precursors for Global Earthquakes. Issue 9 (1st November 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kutoglu, Senol Hakan; Ghasempour, Fatemeh; Sekertekin, Aliihsan
• Is Part Of: Advances in space research. Volume 68:Issue 9(2021)
• Page Start: 3531
• Page End: 3545
• Publication Date: 2021-11-01
• Subjects: Earthquake Precursor -- Aerosol -- AOD -- MODIS; Space sciences -- Periodicals; Astronautics -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 500.505
• DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2021.06.036
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0273-1177

Abstract

Abstract: Earthquakes are among the major and destructive natural disasters on Earth. Thus, it is important to investigate whether the occurrence of earthquakes affects the behavior of atmospheric parameters. This study aims to examine the aerosol variations in the atmosphere from a multi-year perspective as the earthquake precursor for the eight Mw > 7.0 earthquakes over different locations on the world. In this study, we analyzed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data as an earthquake precursor. In this context, 4-year (the earthquake year and the previous 3 years) epicentral AOD values were evaluated for each earthquake. As an anomaly indicator, ±2σ (95% confidence level) interval was utilized after applying 15-day moving average filter to the AOD time series. The results showed that any significant pre-seismic fluctuation or distinctive signal was not detected for any of the events, except for the 2017 Iraq Mw = 7.3 earthquake. However, identical anomalies are also observed 8–10 times in a year, which are not related to an earthquake. Thus, it can be assumed as a coincidence rather than a precursory signal. As a consequence, according to the scientific methodology (long-term AOD analysis) used in this study, sufficient precursory events could not be associated with the earthquakes to confirm the hypothesis that pre-seismic aerosol anomalies occur in the atmosphere.