Effects of railway speed on aviation demand and CO2 emissions in China. (May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Yu, Kemei; Strauss, Jack; Liu, Shuli; Li, Hongchang; Kuang, Xujuan; Wu, Jianhong
• Is Part Of: Transportation research. Volume 94(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-05
• Subjects: Rail weighted operation speed -- Air passenger traffic -- CO2 emissions; Transportation -- Research -- Periodicals; Transportation -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; 354.76
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2021.102772
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1361-9209

Abstract

Highlights: Higher railway speed has more negative impact on air passenger traffic. The substitution effect of railway on air travel is stronger on short- and medium-distance routes. Railway speed contributes to significant reduction of CO2 emissions from aviation. Abstract: While there is a rich body of literature on the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on aviation, research on railway speedup and the consequent environmental effects remains scarce. We apply an augmented gravity model to examine the effect of railway speedup on air travel demand and CO2 emissions for 546 city pairs from 2013 to 2017. We observe that, on average, railway weighted operation speed increased from 100.9 km/h in 2013 to 141.2 km/h in 2017. As railway operation speed increased by 39.94%, the number of airline passengers declined by 29.84% for all market segments. During the research period, about 104.92 million air passengers shifted to rail transport due to improved rail services driven by speed, leading to a reduction of 13.57 million tons of CO2 emissions. Our findings highlight the importance of optimizing transportation structure to reduce CO2 emissions.