Can we calculate drought risk… and do we need to?. (16th April 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hall, Jim W.; Leng, Guoyong
• Is Part Of: Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Volume 6:Number 4(2019)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2019-04-16
• Subjects: agriculture -- drought -- risk; Hydrology -- Periodicals; 553.705
• DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1349
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2049-1948

Abstract

Abstract : There is growing interest in the possibility of global analysis of drought risk, following the rapid development of global models of flood risk and other natural hazards. While this is an attractive idea, we argue that it is not actually possible as, unlike for flooding, it is not possible to unambiguously distinguish between "drought" and "nondrought" events, in particular when considering the impacts of droughts on agriculture. Any definition of a drought event depends upon the choice of drought index, which is to some extent arbitrary. Nonetheless, the absence of unambiguous quantified estimates of drought risk need not be an obstacle to rational drought risk management, as it is still possible to evaluate and compare the benefits of different drought risk management options. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change Science of Water > Methods Abstract : Comparing drought risks around the world is trickier than for other natural hazards, such as floods or earthquakes, because the impacts of droughts are hard to define. Nonetheless, metrics of hydro‐climatic variability and socio‐economic vulnerability can help to inform drought risk management policies.