The moving epidemic method applied to influenza surveillance in Guangdong, China. (March 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kang, Min; Tan, Xiaohua; Ye, Meiyun; Liao, Yu; Song, Tie; Tang, Shixing
• Is Part Of: International journal of infectious diseases. Volume 104(2021)
• Page Start: 594
• Page End: 600
• Publication Date: 2021-03
• Subjects: Seasonal influenza -- Moving epidemic method -- Surveillance; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Communicable Diseases -- Periodicals; Communicable diseases; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 616.9
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.058
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1201-9712

Abstract

Highlights: Use of the moving epidemic method (MEM) for detecting influenza epidemic thresholds in the subtropics was explored. Using influenza virus stratified surveillance data with the MEM was well implemented. The MEM could detect an influenza epidemic 1 week in advance in Guangdong, China. Local diverse seasonal patterns of influenza subtypes in Guangdong were revealed. Abstract: Objectives: The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been well used for assessing seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions. This study used the MEM to establish epidemic threshold for influenza in Guangdong, a subtropical province in China. Methods: Influenza virology surveillance data from 2011/2012 to 2017/2018 seasons in Guangdong were used with the MEM to calculate the epidemic thresholds and timeously detect the 2018/2019 influenza season epidemic. The weekly positive proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), B/Victoria-lineage and B/Yamagata-lineage were separately adapted to calculate the subtype-specific epidemic thresholds. The performance of MEM was evaluated using a cross-validation procedure. Results: For the 2018/2019 influenza season, the epidemic threshold of a weekly positive proportion was 15.08%. Epidemic detection for the 2018/2019 season was 1 week in advance. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Yamagata-lineage and B/Victoria-lineage prevailed during winter and spring and their epidemic thresholds were 5.12%, 4.53% and 4.38%, respectively. Influenza A(H3N2) was active in the summer, with an epidemic threshold of 11.99%. Conclusions: Using influenza virology surveillance data stratified by types of influenza virus, the MEM was effectively used in Guangdong, China. This study provided a practical way for subtropical regions to establish local influenza epidemic thresholds.