COVID-19 does not stop at open borders: Spatial contagion among local authority districts during England's first wave. (February 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Laroze, Denise; Neumayer, Eric; Plümper, Thomas
• Is Part Of: Social science & medicine. Volume 270(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-02
• Subjects: SARS-CoV-2 -- COVID-19 -- Infectious diseases -- Pandemic -- Spatial contagion -- Spatial dependence -- Lockdown -- English local authority districts; Social medicine -- Periodicals; Medical anthropology -- Periodicals; Public health -- Periodicals; Psychology -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Médecine sociale -- Périodiques; Anthropologie médicale -- Périodiques; Santé publique -- Périodiques; Psychologie -- Périodiques; Médecine -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 362.105
• DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113655
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0277-9536

Abstract

Abstract: Infectious diseases generate spatial dependence or contagion not only between individuals but also between geographical units. New infections in one local district do not just depend on properties of the district, but also on the strength of social ties of its population with populations in other districts and their own degree of infectiousness. We show that SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic spread across district borders in England as a function of pre-crisis commute to work streams between districts. Crucially, the strength of this spatial contagion depends on the phase of the epidemic. In the first pre-lockdown phase, the spread of the virus across district borders is high. During the lockdown period, the cross-border spread of new infections slows down significantly. Spatial contagion increases again after the lockdown is eased but not statistically significantly so. Highlights: We show that SARS-CoV-2 infections in local districts spill-over to other districts. Spatial contagion is high during the period before England's lockdown. The lockdown significantly reduces temporal dynamics and spatial contagion. Spatial contagion rises again once the lockdown is eased but only very slightly.