Beauty Contests and the Term Structure. Issue 4 (4th February 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ellison, Martin; Tischbirek, Andreas
• Is Part Of: Journal of the European Economic Association. Volume 19:Issue 4(2021)
• Page Start: 2234
• Page End: 2282
• Publication Date: 2021-02-04
• Subjects: Economics -- Periodicals; Économie politique -- Périodiques; Science économique; Périodique électronique (Descripteur de forme); Ressource Internet (Descripteur de forme); 330
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvab006
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1542-4766

Abstract

Abstract: A novel decomposition highlights the scope for information to influence the term structure of interest rates. Based on the law of total covariance, we show that real term premia in macroeconomic models contain a component that depends on covariances of realised stochastic discount factors and a component that depends on covariances of expectations of those stochastic discount factors. The covariance of expectations is typically low in macrofinance models, which contributes to the real term premia implied by the models being at least an order of magnitude too small, a result that is unchanged even if we introduce aggregate demand externalities combined with shocks to higher-order beliefs. We argue that generating realistic term premia requires there to be strategic complementarities in the formation of expectations. A quantitative model, in which beliefs are formed in a beauty contest, can explain a significant proportion of observed term premia, when estimated using data on expectations of productivity growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters.