Refining epidemiological forecasts with simple scoring rules. (3rd October 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Moore, Robert E.; Rosato, Conor; Maskell, Simon
• Is Part Of: Philosophical transactions. Volume 380:Number 2233(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-10-03
• Subjects: Bayesian -- multisource -- COVID-19 -- forecasting -- scores -- NSES; Physical sciences -- Periodicals; Engineering -- Periodicals; Mathematics -- Periodicals; 500
• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0305
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-503X

Abstract

Abstract : Estimates from infectious disease models have constituted a significant part of the scientific evidence used to inform the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. These estimates can vary strikingly in their bias and variability. Epidemiological forecasts should be consistent with the observations that eventually materialize. We use simple scoring rules to refine the forecasts of a novel statistical model for multisource COVID-19 surveillance data by tuning its smoothness hyperparameter. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.