Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change. Issue 2 (27th January 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yoshioka, Mayumi K.; Shinoda, Taro; Kato, Masaya; Kanada, Sachie; Kitoh, Akio
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 42:Issue 2(2015:Jan.)
• Page Start: 646
• Page End: 652
• Publication Date: 2015-01-27
• Subjects: supertyphoon -- typhoon maximum intensity -- climate change -- global warming -- cloud‐resolving model -- downscale simulation experiment; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061793
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: Increases of tropical cyclone intensity with global warming have been demonstrated by historical data studies and theory. This raises great concern regarding future changes in typhoon intensity. The present study addressed the problem to what extent supertyphoons will become intense in the global warming climate of the late 21st century. Very high resolution downscale experiments using a cloud‐resolving model without convective parameterizations were performed for the 30 most intense typhoons obtained from the 20 km mesh global simulation of a warmer climate. Twelve supertyphoons occurred in the downscale experiments, and the most intense supertyphoon attained a central pressure of 857 hPa and a wind speed of 88 m s −1 . The maximum intensity of the supertyphoon was little affected by uncertainties that arise from experimental settings. This study indicates that the most intense future supertyphoon could attain wind speeds of 85–90 m s −1 and minimum central pressures of 860 hPa. Key Points: Very high resolution downscale experiments of future typhoons were performed Substantial increase of supertyphoon intensity in the future was projected Some supertyphoons reach higher latitude while maintaining their intensity