Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Case examples and priority information needs. (March 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Nicholson, Charles F.; Stephens, Emma C.; Kopainsky, Birgit; Thornton, Philip K.; Jones, Andrew D.; Parsons, David; Garrett, James
• Is Part Of: Agricultural systems. Volume 188(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-03
• Subjects: Food security -- Agricultural systems models -- Food access -- Stability; Agricultural systems -- Periodicals; Agriculture -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; 338.16
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103030
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0308-521X

Abstract

Abstract: Analyses of food security with agricultural systems models often focus on indicators of food availability, with limited treatment of the other three dimensions: food access, stability and utilization. We illustrate how three indicators of access (food consumption expenditures, a food insecurity scale and dietary diversity) and their stability can be incorporated into a dynamic household-level model of a maize-based production system in the Kenya highlands and a dynamic regional model of sheep production and marketing in Mexico. Although stylized due to limits on empirical evidence, the analyses suggest that inclusion of multiple access indicators can provide insights because the indicators respond differently to production shocks, demand growth and programs providing production subsidies. We also illustrate how to examine stability of food security outcomes in response to shocks using metrics of hardness (ability to withstand shocks) and elasticity (ability to return to previous conditions). The data required for more widespread empirical implementation of these methods include measurement—preferably at frequent intervals over time—of food access indicators, but also their determinants and linkages to outcomes in agricultural systems models. Analyses of food access and stability will be most valuable for assessments of food security impacts of climate change, when food systems are undergoing transformative change and to identify priority interventions and target audiences. Graphical abstract: Unlabelled Image Highlights: Representation of food security in agricultural systems models should focus on food access and assessment of stability. We modified household and regional models to illustrate the challenges and usefulness of analyzing food access and stability. Use of three access metrics provides insights about how these respond differently to production and policy shocks. Stability analyzed with "hardness" (ability to withstand shocks) and "elasticity" (ability to return to previous conditions). Empirical evidence for access metrics is needed but would inform assessment of climate change and transformative change.