Spatio-temporal distribution pattern of COVID-19 in the Northern Italy during the first-wave scenario: The role of the highway network. (September 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: De Angelis, Marco; Durastanti, Claudio; Giovannoni, Matteo; Moretti, Laura
• Is Part Of: Transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives. Volume 15(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-09
• Subjects: COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 -- SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 -- SS9 Via Emilia -- E35 European route from Amsterdam to Rome -- E70 European route from Coruña to Poti -- E55 European route from Helsingborg to Kalamáta -- E45 European route from Alta to Gela -- A7 Italian highway from Milano to Genova -- A6 Italian highway from Torino to Savona -- A4 Italian highway from Torino to Trieste -- A27 Italian highway from Venezia to Pian di Vedoia -- LO Province of Lodi -- BG Province of Bergamo -- CR Province of Cremona -- PC Province of Piacenza -- PD Province of Padova -- PV Province of Pavia -- PR Province of Parma -- TR Province of Treviso -- TO Province of Torino -- MI Province of Milano -- BR Province of Brescia -- RO Province of Rovigo -- GO Province of Gorizia; COVID-19 -- SARS-CoV-2 -- Spatial epidemiology -- Disease outbreak scenarios -- Highway; Transportation -- Periodicals; 388.05
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2022.100646
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2590-1982

Abstract

Highlights: Statistical methodology for COVID-19 analysis. epidemic diffusion model for COVID-19. COVID-19 spread on highways in North Italy. Abstract: Background: The rapid outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed several challenges to the scientific community. The goal of this paper is to investigate the spread of COVID-19 in Northern Italy during the so-called first wave scenario and to provide a qualitative comparison with the local highway net. Methods: Fixed a grid of days from February 27, 2020, the cumulative numbers of infections in each considered province have been compared to sequences of thresholds. As a consequence, a time-evolving classification of the state of danger in terms of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, in view of the smallest threshold overtaken by this comparison, has been obtained for each considered province. The provinces with a significant amount of cases have then been collected into matrices containing only the ones featuring a significant amount of cases. Results: The time evolution of the classification has then been qualitatively compared to the highway network, to identify similarities and thus linking the rapid spreading of COVID-19 and the highway connections. Conclusions: The obtained results demonstrate how the proposed model properly fits with the spread of COVID-19 along with the Italian highway transport network and could be implemented to analyze qualitatively other disease transmissions in different contexts and time periods.